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Sunday, August 31, 2008

Yes! Its Here. College Football: Week One Thoughts

First off, let me apologize. I wanted to do my first "picks post" on Friday, but the website was down. Being that I missed making week one picks, we'll start with the official top 25 games + Notre Dame and Michigan picks next week. It'll work well because ND did not start this week anyway. Speaking of which, that drives me absolutely nuts. I know Notre Dame is holier then thau (no pun intended) when it comes to their college football doings. This is why they have their own television deal. This is why they make their own merchandise. This is why they aren't in the Big 10 (believe me, the Big 10 has tried). These three things make the Irish what they are. Notre Dame game are events no matter what their record is. For example, last year I was able to watch my 2-9 football team play at Stanford in the final game of the year on ESPN. There is no way this would ever happen. The draw was still Notre Dame. Stanford, despite a win over USC earlier in the year, was just as bad. Notre Dame beat them for goodness sakes. But what this feeling of ultimate superiority also does is make us fans wait. For the last few years, ND has started on the same day as the rest of the country. They didn't when I was a kid and they have returned to their "we'll wait one more week" ways. I don't know if its a sense of superiority or a "we don't play football in August" mentality, but Notre Dame has to stop it. This is the one weekend where college football takes center stage. This is the weekend where every football fan worth his salt is watching because its the first "real" action we've seen since the Super Bowl. Having a weekend as big as this go by without college football's marquee team playing is criminal. All the other "big time programs" accept the August start. Ohio State played yesterday. USC was on the field. Michigan showed up. So why not Notre Dame? They are already slipping in terms of national popularity to the likes of Ohio State, Florida, and USC. Further jeopardizing the popularity and relevance of the program is a dumb move. Plus, do you know how hard yesterday was for me? It was like I had the rickets on Halloween and couldn't go out trick or treating. I sat their in my costume and cried in my empty basket of candy.

Six more long days until San Diego State.

Now some quickies from the week that was number one:

Biggest surprise: Alabama. No one doubted that Nick Saben would get that program back into a position of national relevance. But it may happen a lot faster then we all thought. People overrate Clemson on a yearly basis. We saw last night that they are in no way one of the ten best teams in the country. But their no cupcake either. They may be horrifically overrated, but they still came into the game ranked ninth in the country. To roll over them by 24 is very impressive. At no point did you get the feeling that Clemson had a shot in the game. John Parker Wilson was very good, if not great. He completion percentage was good and he threw two touchdowns. Suddenly that 'bama/Georgia game on September 27th looks quite attractive.

Biggest Dissapointment: Pittsburgh. Remember the look Dave Wanstadt used to have on his face towards the end of his Miami Dolphin tenure? He's beginning to look like that again. Just a few years ago, Pitt was a program on the rise. They made a BCS bowl and looked to be on their way to years of glory. Now I think its a dead program. I'm sorry, you can't loose a 14-7 halftime lead slip away at home to Bowling Green. These are the teams you put on your schedule to help your resume, not hurt it. I thought Pitt was overrated headed into the year anyway. Sports Illustrated had them ranked 19 in their preseason preview. That was ridiculous. This is not a top twenty program. They are helped because they play in the weakest power conference but that doesn't mean much if you put up duds like yesterday. They should destroy Buffalo next week but I doubt Pitt is back in the top twenty five before week four, at the earliest.

What I'm Wondering: We know Missouri has an explosive offense. But do they have the defense to win a national championship? Illinois put up 42 against Mizzou yesterday. That was the bad news. The good news was Chase Daniels threw for 352 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-42 win. But I still can't look past that 42 points given up. Juice Williams threw five touchdowns. Williams is a good quarterback, but not one that should throw five touchdowns against you. Furthermore, you would think this offense would have to go threw some kind of adjustment period after loosing Reshard Mendenhall to the NFL. The running game only yielded 81 yards yesterday, but what does it matter if Juice Williams is going to throw for 451 yards. That kind of passing attack doesn't need a running game. Two things will be interesting to see in week two. Can Williams keep this up (Heisman anyone?)? and is the Mizzou secondary really this bad?You may not get a good feeling on Mizzou for a few weeks. They have some cupcakers on the horizon, but its still something of note to watch. And how frustrated do you have to be if your Illinois? Score 42 on the road and loose. I don't care who you are, theirs no such thing as a good loss. Expect an Illini beat down next week on Eastern Illinois. Not to tip my pick...

The shock and awe award- Is Brian Brohm really gone? Louisville scored two points today in a 27-2 loss to Kentucky (remember them?) Cardinal quarterback Hunter Cantwell was 20/43 for 153 and had three picks. And he's a senior...ouch.

But wait! Week one is not done yet. Solid game tonight. The Rick Neuheisal era in UCLA begins when they host #18 Tennessee. The pick: Tennessee in a game that is uncomfortably close for Vol fans.

Jordan Lauterbach

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Its Not My Fault...I Swear.....

Because I am such a rabid (or clinically insane, depending on who you talk to) Jets fan, sometimes people treat me like I am part of the organization. This is why my ninth grade math teacher apologized to me in front of the whole class when the Raiders beat the Jets in the playoffs. This is why people were treating me like I just became a father when Favre came a few weeks ago.

But now I feer for my life.

Because of an injury suffered against the Jets last night, it looks like Osi Umenyiora might be done for the year. Mike T is beside himself. Matt Suldano is unresponive. I can't even imagine what my other Giant fan co-hosts and friends are thinking right now. But I do know this...it can't be good. I doubt their baking me and my fellow Jet fans a cake.

Or rather, a cake we can eat.

From the Newark Star Ledger:

http://www.nj.com/giants/index.ssf/2008/08/source_umenyiora_to_undergo_su.html


Please don't hurt me.

It's not my fault.

Jordan Lauterbach

Saturday, August 23, 2008

When will it be time to say goodbye?

Derek Jeter; Yankee Captain, World Series MVP, All-Star Game MVP, Future Hall of Famer, but how much longer will (or maybe I should be saying should) be a Yankee?

For almost my entire life as a Yankee fan, Derek Jeter has been "The Man". He always came through in the clutch, always performed to the best of his ability day in and day out, led the team and always said the right thing. But nowadays, its looking more and more like his days as a Yankee should be drawing to an end. But will they?

Derek Jeter, currently making $21,600,000 and slugging only .407, more than 50 points below his career average, will be making another $21 million next year, as well as in 2010. What should the Yankees do when his contract is up? He will be 36 years old and presumably wanting a 4 year deal to take him to age 40 (obviously this could be wrong, but lets just assume it isnt). Jeter, like all players today, will be looking for a big payday, but should the Yankees give it to him? Currently, Jeter is hitting .296 with 8 homeruns and 60 RBI which projects to 10 homeruns and 76 RBI over a full season. Not only is that 20 points below his career average, he has an OB% of .355, 31 points below his career average.

One thing that has always saved Jeter is his defense, but if we are honest with ourselves, he has always been an overrated defender and didnt win any of his 3 gold gloves until the Yankees current 3B Alex Rodriguez moved off of the shortstop position. We now live in the days where everytime Jeter throws the ball to first, most fans are holding their breath it gets safely into the glove of the First Baseman.

Looking at Jeters stats over the past 3 years, his homeruns have declined from 19 in 2005, to 14 in 2006 and 12 in 2007. It must be noted though, I was amongst the biggest supporters of Jeter winning the MVP award in 2006 and I still stand by that argument. Outside of his 2006 season, his SLG% has also been below his career average 2 out of the past three years, and will be much below it again this year.

Even over the past week, Jeter has hit an outstanding .429, but of those 12 hits, 1 was a homerun and the rest were all singles. He had only 2 rbi's in that span and only 3 over the past 2 weeks.

Essentially what it comes down to for me is Jeter now, and especially in 2 years, will essentially be a glorified singles hitter. He will be the highest priced singles hitter over the next two years, and as players hit the mid thirties, skills generally continue to decline. Many people who I bring this argument up to say Jeter can change positions, but his bat will not be able to support a move anywhere; not to left field, first base or DH.

I am not a hater of Derek Jeter; he has always been and continues to be one of my favorite players, but should the Yankees shell out 4 years and millions of dollars to a singles hitter with declining defense at the age of 36 just because of what he accomplished in the past? Will it make more sense for them financially because maybe Jeter will be making a run for 4,000 hits while A-Rod is approaching 700 homeruns and more?

Maybe Jeter is playing through an injury this year and will not let on how bad it is. He injured both him hamstring and his hand earlier in the year. Maybe he will heal in the offseason, come back next year healthy, win the MVP and lead the team to a championship in the new stadium. Or maybe he will come back next year and play like a 35 year old shortstop. Only time will tell and this discussion may be completely irrelevant in 2 and a half years, but when it does come, if this is still relevant, should the Yankees sign the man because of what hes done, or the player that he will be?

I know Its Only Preseason But....: Giants Vs Jets Preseason Thoughts

I love beating the Giants. I don't particularly care when it is or where it is, it just feels good. I don't remember every enjoying a preseason game as much as I did tonight. The game itself was a quick one (despite the penalties), but that was no doubt aided by the enjoyment I felt when every Giant quarterback hit the dirt like it was BMX racing. Here are some thoughts:

- Favre looked good again. 9 of 12 for 96 yards and no touchdowns in one half of play. Although the Jets did not score with Favre on the field, his presence was felt. His arm looks as good as ever, whipping balls left and right to multiple receivers. His strengh is amazing as points. Case in point: on one of his first attempts of the game a Giant defensive lineman was pulling him down as Favre fires an absolute strike to Dustin Keller. Keller dropped the ball, but it was no fault of Favre. Later in the half, Favre let loose a beautiful pass down to the sideline to Jerricho Cotchery for what would have been a TD. The play was nullified thanks to an illegal shift penalty called on Bubba Franks. But the point was made. Favre was sacked once and hit hard three times. He saw a lot more contact then he saw against Washington and got right up. Although I would bury my head every time a Giant went near him, it was nice to see him get up like nothing happened. A far cry from years past....

- Besides the drop in the first quarter, I am starting to get really excited about Dustin Keller. He caught three balls for forty three yards. His longest reception went for thirty four yards. He's a big bruising guy who can get lots of yards after the catch. The Jets may finally have a tight end who is a pass catching threat. Him and Favre seam to be getting along really well both on and off the field. This will help big time. Trading up to get Keller may turn out to be one of Mike Taunenbaums best moves so far....that and trading for #4. And to think I wanted Chad Henne at 30.

- Brad Smith looked great tonight. It was a really small sample size (2 catches, 37 yards), but both of those catches came in the first half. Favre didn't look his way a lot but when he did, it went for big gains. Smith made a great one handed grab down the sideline that was nullified by a penalty. This will be Smith's third season in the league. Receivers in their third seasons typically begin to hit there prime. Although I have been critical of Brad Smith in the past, I predict he will have a break out year. He looks more sure handed and confident going across the middle this year. I think, as a generality, when you have a quarterback who rifles his passes, receivers are less hesitant to go over the middle. That was a major knock on Jet receivers last season. I don't foresee it being as much of an issue this year. The receivers are certainly a weakness,but if Smith has a big year, Coles and Cotchery play like they did in 2006, and Dustin Keller contributes, the core may not be as bad as previously thought.

- The highlight of the game was the Jets defense. Once again, the unit looked excellent. The defensive line looked particularly good tonight. No longer are the Jet lineman getting pushed around once the ball is snapped. Seven Jet players combined for eight sacks. Eight sacks! Three of those were of Prince Eli in the first half. Calvin Pace and Kris Jenkins both looked great. Pace had two sacks and Jenkins has two tackles and was all over the field. It's nice to see two of the Jets most debated free agent signings look good.

- Mike Nugent was 2/2 kicking the ball tonight.

- This number two quarterback battle is getting interesting. Mangini mixed and matched Brett Ratliff and Kellen Clemens tonight. Interesting methodology. He got both quarterbacks snaps with the second and third teams. I feel no stronger or weaker about one then I did early in the week. Ratliff should win the job. Despite throwing an awful interception, he did lead the Jets down field late (yet again) with a 24 yard dagger to Paul Raymond (last weeks goat). Clemons continues to be spectacularly unspectacular. He was 9 of 12 for 86 yards. I was a bit surprised that Ratliff only got four attempts, but once again made the most of his time of the field. Clemens, on the other hand, does not. He is madingly plodding and does little to affect the game. I don't see how Ratliff doesn't get the number two job. He's made one mistake all preseason and made up for it with a touchdown on his next drive.

- On a down note, the Jet running game does not look good. Thomas Jones only had 11 yards on six carries. This is the third week where the running game stalled. The lone bright spot was, as was last week, Jesse Chatman. Chatman had 11 carries for 26 yards. I don't know what kind of room the Jets have for Chatman, but he'd be good for five or six carries a game.

Gosh, I love beating the Giants.

- Jordan Lauterbach

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Erik Boland of Newsday on the Sportswire

We will be having Erik Boland on the Sportswire this Thursday (8/21) to talk about the Jets preseason and training camp. Erik writes the blog 'Inside the Jets' on Newsday.com. Go check that out. He reviews every Jets practice. It's truly a great read.

The Sportswire will be on this and every Thursday night from 9-10pm EST on mywcwp.com. You can also listen live and chat on Youcastr.com. Just search 'Sportswire'.

If you miss the show, you can listen to the podcast at our Podcast Site and our Youcastr Page.

Max Caster

Preseason Week 2 Impressions: Jets- Redskins

A brief preamble....

I have often compared my love for football to a drug addiction. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on how you look at), this is not a tremendously off-base comparison. I often find that I am at my happiest during football season. The grass is greener, the sky is bluer, and time just seams to pass more effortlessly then it does during any other period during the year. When football season finally ends, I fall into a sports depression. Sure, college basketball is awesome and baseball is only a few weeks away but it still isn't the same. When people ask me if I prefer baseball or football, my answer is always the same. I grew up with baseball. Its the first sport I ever cared about. Its in my blood. But football is in my soul. It becomes a part of me and my personality. As I sit here at 1:42 in the morning I wonder if that is a good thing or not, but considering what I do for a living it is probably a good thing. Like any good addict, there is a period of withdrawal. A period where, at its height, you would do (or in my case, watch) anything just to get your fix. This is why I found myself watching old tapes of games on the NFL network in July. This is why I was legitimately interested in a week one game between the 49ers and Jets from 1998 (a magical year indeed). But I think the true mark of a football addict is his interest in preseason games. Some call it dumband wasteful. Some compare it to non-alcoholic beer. Some refuse to watch it and even think (dumbly so) that the preseason should be eliminated. I am not one of those people. I love preseason. It's like eating your first meal after a long fast or seeing your favorite relative after years of being apart. You're so happy that it's there, you almost don't care about the quality of the product. Plus, you know that its only a matter of weeks before your mind is blown with another glorious season. Pre-season football is like being on the steps of a pool before diving eight feet under water (for five months). That being said, I probably go a little over board with my analysis of pre-season games, but heck, that's what I do. That's why I'm on the radio four times a week and writing on this website frequently. Because I care way too much about this stuff. I'm not afraid to admit it, but I'm certainly not about to stop...

Preseason week two thoughts: Jets V Redskins-

- I'd be a moron not to start with Brett Favre's first ever game in a New York Jet uniform. The story was obviously the most dominant of the game. People who say it was the only story of the game are sadly mistaken, but it was definitely the biggest. Favre played as well as anyone could have expected. He was on the team ten days and finishes 5 of 6 for 48 yards and one touchdown. He spread out the receivers and tried to get everyone involved. His ball moved down the field with zip we haven't seen since 2002. The passing looked surprisingly in-sync when he was in the game. Not a tremendous amount to analyze. Six passes is six passes but Jet fans can't sit here today and say they are not ecstatic at the possibilities this offense now has. I get the feeling that Jerricho Cotchery is going to be Favre's number one receiver this year, but expect Dustin Keller to get a lot of looks as well. We also haven't seen him play with Laverneaus Coles yet. I'm a bit worried about how Favre and Coles will gel. Between Coles being upset about his buddy Chad Pennington and his injury issues, I question how long it will take for Favre and Coles to get comfortable with each other. This is why I expect Jerricho Cotchery to play a huge role in the offense this year.

- The offensive line looks like a work in progress. Much like the Cleveland game, the first team o-line looked tremendously inconsistent. The pass blocking was fine (minus the one sack allowed), but the run blocking was still poor. Thomas Jones managed only seven yards on two carries. Can't get two carried away about two carries, but the progression of the run blocking is something to keep an eye out in the next two weeks. However, run blocking is something that takes longer to gel than pass blocking. Pass blocking is relatively basic. Don't let the quarterback get hit and allow 3-4 seconds before he is pressured. Sure, its easier said then done, but compared to run blocking, it is easier. Run blocking is all about opening the right holes at the right time. Far more intricate then pass blocking.

- The defense looked much improved from week one. They allowed the Redskins to march down the field early in the game, but held them inside the ten yard line to force a field goal. This was encouraging only because it was the only blemish on the day. The run defense left a bit to be desired, but it didn't lead to any points. A big 73 yard run in the second quarter was nullified by a James Inhedigbo interception. Say what you will about the Jet defense in the last two weeks, but they have gotten big plays at big moments. If that's not a good sign, I'm not sure what is. Vernon Gholston looked better this week. That's not saying much because the guy has been (true to the rumors), virtually invisible in practice and in Cleveland. Gholston had three tackles in the game and appeared to be of a presence on the field.

- One of my favorite subplots of training camp is the battle for second string quarterback. I prey that it's a battle for nothing, but you can never be too careful in this league. I've said it on the air and I'll write it here: Brett Ratliff should win the job. Ratliff has outplayed Kellen Clemens with the third team. Rattliff has shined with a bunch of guys that will not be on the team next week. He was 13 of 19 for 148 yards in the Redskin game. This thing I like most about Ratliff is how cool he looks under pressure. Young quarterbacks have tendencies to make rash and often disastrous decisions when facing even the littlest of pressure. Rattliff doesn't do that. He steps up in the pocket and still makes a strong throw as the defense flushes over him. He doesn't have "happy feet" nor does he appear phased by receivers dropping passes. He engineered a masterful two minute drill at the end of the game that should have won it or put the game into overtime. A wide open Paul Raymond dropped a ball that lasted right in his bread basket and Mike Nugent missed a chip shot twenty three yard field goal. I did think that Kellen Clemens played a lot better this week then the numbers say. He was 5 of 12 for 63 yards. This is deceiving because the Jet receivers could not hold onto anything on Saturday night. He was 5 of 12 when he should have been 9 of 12. Clemens did not play himself out of the job on Saturday, but I think Ratliff played himself into it. Clemens has not been impressive at all in practice. That is where he appears to be loosing the job. Here's a guy who would have lost his starting job to the very guy that was benched for him last season. That gives you an idea of what the Jets think of him. I get the feeling that Kellen Clemens will never start on a permanent basis for the Jets. I can see a situation this season where the Jets shift to grooming Ratliff, not Clemens, to take over when Favre leaves. I would like to see Ratliff get some second team reps this week against the Giants. Oh, and it looks like Danny Ainge's Jet career is already done. Apparently, he's awful. A horrible miscalculation by all involved (me included).

- I know its only preseason, but I'm a bit worried about Mike Nugent. He missed a 48 yarder in the third quarter and a twenty three yard chip shot to tie it as time ran out. I'm not as stunned by the forty eight yarder (in fact, he made one on the next drive from the exact same distance) as I am by the 23 yarder. That is basically an extra point. Pro kickers should be able to make those in there sleep. Eric Mangini did not look happy after that game. I don't know how big a deal it is but I do know this: it is time for Mike Nugent to start making easy kicks. He missed a ton of extra points last year and there comes a time when that can't be overlooked. When drafted, Nugent was supposed to be a franchise kicker. This is the year to start showing it.

All this analysis for the second game of the pre-season...maybe I do need some sort of counseling...


- Jordan Lauterbach

Thursday, August 7, 2008

The Resurection is Complete

Remember when you were nine and it was about six am on Christmas morning? You couldn't contain yourself. You would just start giggling and shacking with the utter excitement of the joys that were so close. Times that feeling by about 44,000,000 and you can begin to scratch the surface of what I'm feeling right now.

Brett Favre is a New York Jet. No, no. Let me write it again. Brett Favre is a New York Jet. I debated the column being just those seven words. Why not? They seem to be the only words that have any meaning at all to me now. Case in point, I got home today and found a note on my mirror from my mother. I had fallen a bit behind on my laundry, and rightfully so, she called me out on it. Because I got home from ESPN Radio (where I intern and, also the home of Brett Favre and the New York Jets) at 2am, she chose to voice her displeasure to me via a note. Under normal circumstances, I would be a bit angry. Not this day. For no one can rain on my parade today. Not good guy Nick Malone. Not Fourth Down co-host and broadcast partner Anthony Defranco ( both Giant fans, as I may add) Today is not a day to talk about the Super Bowl. Today is not a day to talk about Eli Manning, or Plaxico Buress, or Jerry Reese. Today is a day to talk about what is, at its surface, the greatest summer day in Jet history. Maybe the second greatest day in Jet history period.

However, I'm done purely celebrating, for now. Lets get down to basics. As I wrote nearly two weeks ago, I was in tremendous favor of getting Brett Favre here, but not for the traditional reasons. I am not a fan of the "sexy name acquisition." Too often, teams bring in aging veterans who are clearly past their prime just to sell tickets or jerseys or get the headlines back. Brett Favre is not one of those acquisitions. The guy can still play. Look no further then last season when he came within one overtime period of a Super Bowl. He did not play great in that game, but he did play great last season. After a mediocre 2005 and a downright abysmal 2006, Favre threw for over four thousand yards and 28 touchdown passes last season. People (like a co-host of mine) cited his poor performance in 2005 and 2006 as reasons why the Jets should not make the move. This is a valid point if we're talking about this last August. My problem with the "2005 and 2006 were bad" argument is this: how do you explain 2007? That's a question Favre detractors have yet to give me an answer to. It certainly was not his supporting cast. If you have a keen memory, you'll remember that the Packers played almost half of 2007 without a running game to speak of. The receivers were good , but not great. Is Greg Jennings that much better then Laverneous Coles when the later is at full strength? Maybe a little, but not much. Does Jerricho Cotchery have more upside at this point then the aging Donald Driver? Yes. The Jets also will have a solid running game. Thomas Jones somehow managed over a thousand yards with a laughable offensive line. The line was so bad that Jones only found the end zone once. I have a feeling that will change. I don't think you can argue that the Jets supporting cast is not comparable to that of the 2007 Packers. A 2007 Packer team that was minutes away from a Super Bowl.
Most of all, this move makes sense purely because it was necessary. The Jets quarterback situation was in shambles. It was time to face facts. Kellen Clemons was having a horrible camp. By Friday, Clemons had already thrown six interceptions (which makes me smile about the d-backs by the way). It was clear that Pennington does not have the arm or the stamina to lead the Jets on a long sustained run. I know he did it in 2004. I know he did it (kind of) in 2006 (I saw kinda because you always got the feeling that the 2006 club was not as good as their record (10-6). That was proved correct last season). Eric Ainge is not anywhere near ready. Bringing a veteran onto a team that is built to win now makes sense. A veteran who can still play. A veteran who is, debatable so, the greatest player of all time. This is not a guy who will come in and kiss baby's and wave to the fans. Brett Favre is here to bring the Jets back. And he will do that.

You also got to love what the team gave up to get him. It is, in principal, a fourth round pick. If Favre gets 50% of the snaps, it increases to a third. If Favre take 70% of the snaps and the Jets reach the playoffs, it becomes a second round pick. If number four gets 80% of the snaps and the Jets...wait for it....make the SUPER BOWL, it becomes a first rounder. A small price to pay for what Brett Favre can do for you. And what he will do for the New York Jets.

Its win now. They have the defense. They have the o-line. Now, they have the quarterback. The final piece. The green resurrection is complete.

I just saw a superimposed picture of Favre in a Jet uniform.

I think I'm tearing up.

Jordan Lauterbach