With the first in the 2005 NFL Draft the San Francisco 49ers select QB Aaron Rodgers from Cal University.
Scouting Report: Rodgers lacks footwork and composure in the pocket. He doesn't throw deep often (or with enough accuracy.) Jeff Tedford is a QB guru that makes college QB's look great. Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington and Kyle Boller all were coached by Tedford. How is Rodgers is going to break the mold? He's a system quarterback.
Rodgers is going to get rushed into action with the 49ers. He needs to sit back and learn, instead he's going to be thrown to sharks playing for a team with expansion level talent.
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2005: Rodgers is yanked in and out of the starting lineup. He shows flashes but is more bad then good.
2006: Offensive coordinator Mike McCarthy leaves for the Green Bay Packers and is replaced by Norv Turner. Rodgers is now on his second offensive coordinator in as many years. Rodgers leads the 49ers on a three-game winning streak in November. In a statement game on national television against the Seahawks Rodgers leads a miraculous comeback. Commentator Chris Collinsworth observes that this “is the best I've ever seen [Rodgers]. That drive is the best I saw...What a second-half he has had!". Rodgers improves his stats greatly from year one.
2007: Norv Turner is hired as the head coach of the San Diego Chargers. Rodgers now is on his third coordinator in as many years. Turner is replaced by Jim Hostler who once again changes the offensive philosophy. On September 30th Rodgers is hurt when his offensive lineman blow yet another assignment. Rodgers suffers a serious shoulder injury. After missing three weeks head coach Mike Nolan openly questions Rodgers toughness. Upon returning to the lineup Rodgers re-injuries himself. After the season Dr. James Andrews would note that Rodgers shoulder never healed properly and he shouldn't have been playing. It's a lost season for Rodgers.
2008: Hostler is fired and replaced by Mike Martz. Martz brings in a totally new system and wants to entirely change Rodgers mechanics. Everything Rodgers has learned in three years is now useless. Rodgers loses his job to J.T. O'Sullivan. On September 10th he breaks his collar bone. Rodgers is labeled a bust.
2009: Mike Nolan is fired. Jimmy Raye is brought on as offensive coordinator. The Niners fifth in as many years. Mike Singletary is hired and the team mends fences with Rodgers. Rodgers loses the quarterback competition to journeyman Shaun Hill. Rodgers returns to the starting lineup on October 26th. In Week 13 he records the first 300-yard passing game of his career. Rodgers is showing signs of life.
2010: Rodgers takes a pay cut to remain with the team. For the first time in his career, he has the same offensive coordinator from the previous season. After a 0-5 start Jimmy Raye is fired and Mike Johnson becomes Rodgers sixth different offensive coordinator. Rodgers clashes with Singletary on the sidelines. The fans boo him off the field and chant for much maligned back up David Carr. Call it the Jeff Tedford curse.
2011: Singletary is fired. Quarterback guru Jim Harbaugh is hired. A long lockout presents a situation where the 49ers and Rodgers need each other. Harbaugh showers Rodgers with coaching and praise. For the first time in his career Rodgers is allowed to play to his strengths. He can roll out of the pocket, he can make quick strike throws. Rodgers enjoys a break out season.
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Meanwhile.....With the 24th pick in the 2005 NFL draft the Green Bay Packers select quarterback Alex Smith.
Scouting Report: Smith is a dual threat QB who can get you with both his arm and his feet. He's a tremendous leader and a hard worker. The worry about Smith is rushing him to play when he isn't ready.
College coach Urban Meyer says:
"It's going to be interesting in [Green Bay]...Alex is an extremely quick learner. However, he's a guy that, until he understands it, he is nonfunctional. He is a guy that -- I keep hearing how Brett Favre kind of makes something out of nothing and is a person that runs around to make a play -- Alex Smith is not that kind of player. Alex Smith is a person that, once he is taught, has to learn it all. He might struggle early, but once he gets it, he gets it...That's why, early in his career, and early in our career with him at Utah, he was not an effective passer, because he really didn't understand. Once he understood, there was no one better. He learns quickly, though. But he's not a guy that you throw the ball out there and tell him, 'Go play.' He wants to know what is exactly expected of him and then he becomes a dynamite player.”
2005 – 2007 : Smith gets to learn behind hall of fame QB Brett Favre. Mike McCarthy teaches Smith the ins and outs of the west coast offense that made stars out of Joe Montana and Steve Young. Consistency and the ability to learn from the sidelines are key for Smith.
2008: Brett Favre is ousted as QB in what becomes a very public and ugly breakup. With the world on his shoulders Smith breaks out, passing for over 4,000 yards.
2010: Smith reaches sports nirvana. Holding the Lombardi trophy his teammates rush to put a replica world title belt around his waist. He is named Superbowl MVP.
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We often ignore external factors in sports and instead look for narratives that are convenient rather then truthful.Alex Smith has tiny baby hands. Alex Smith isn't tough. Alex Smith doesn't have the heart.
The truth is Alex Smith never had a chance to succeed those first six years in San Francisco.
It's not to say this is how things would have turned out if the 49ers had drafted Aaron Rodgers...but it tells you what might have been.
Like what you see? Read Jason on ProSportsBlogging.com ,you can also hear him every Monday and Thursday on the Sportswire from 6-7 on 88.1 FM and WCWPSports.com . Follow him on twitter at J_Comack
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