Count Wade out of NY-NJ in 2010

From Fred Kerber of the NY Post:

The Nets, of course, have positioned themselves to be major players in the free agent hunt next summer. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are the marquee names expected to be on the market. James has indicated he won't sign an extension beforehand. Wade said you never know.

And while admitting the Heat were still the favorites, for his services, he pretty much dashed any hope of the Nets or Knicks getting him. After saying firmly "The Heat" as the frontrunner, he was asked point blank if the Nets or Knicks had a chance.

"Not in my mind. I'm not thinking about the Knicks or the Nets. Only when we play them," Wade said.

Jumping back to the Heat, Wade said "We're talking about it. I haven't ruled it out yet. We're still talking. I owe the Heat that much to really consider it. And I'm a loyal person. And I'm with a loyal organization so I'm going to do my homework and make sure I'm making the right decision."


This is terrible for any Knicks or Nets fan. Without Dwyane Wade, the 2010 guard pool dwindles to Joe Johnson and LeBron James. Now the shot of either the Knicks or Nets landing a big-name guard is diminished by 33.3%. And that's not factoring in the pursuit by other teams.

Now with two guards left to grab, it's a 50-50 shot. Let's say 10 teams in total (it'll probably be more from what I'm hearing) are in the market for James and Johnson. That means New York and New Jersey would have a 5% chance to sign one of them.

My best guess is that Dwyane Wade will stay in Miami. The arrival of Carlos Boozer to the 'Sunshine State' has been imminent for a while. Boozer will be signed to a long-term contract and so will Wade soon thereafter.

The Heat will contend for a title when Carlos Boozer is added, and Wade knows that. That's why he's been saying such vague things when it comes to his contract situation. Until the Boozer deal happens, Wade won't make a move. So he can't say anything too concrete.

But the fact that he said outright that New York and New Jersey aren't great considerations is troubling. One staunch statement amidst the broad ones seems believable.


--Max Caster