The Top Five Story Lines of the US Open...and a Pick

Here are my top 5 story lines for the U.S Open this weekend-

1. Phil Mickleson- He ranks number one on this list for a few reasons. The foremost, of course, being his wife Amy's breast cancer battle and how he is dealing with it. He spoke yesterday to the media and sounded as likable as ever. Phil spoke about how great a wife and mother Amy is. Their is no doubt that his main thoughts are not on golf, nor should they be. What the Mickleson family is going through right now would test the concentration and drive of anyone. Now the question becomes how will this affect Mickleson on the course? He's always been known as a guy who thinks way to much when he's on the court. This often gets him into gigantic trouble. I tend to think that Mickleson may have way too much on his plate in his family life to compete for a major championship. After a so-so week at the St. Judes, he shot a disastrous 75 on Sunday.

I spoke to Jason Sobel of espn.com on "The Edge" this week. He disagrees with me about Mickleson. He told me that Mickleson's personal situation may focus him more then ever and thusly prevent the blunders that Phil has incurred in the past. Although I disagree, I can buy this theory. Mickleson's "over-thinking" problem may be a product of inconsistent focus. No one can doubt Phil's focus after the press conference he held yesterday. In that press conference, Phil revealed that he'll take a longer leave of absence after the Open to further care for Amy. It's clearly all or nothing for Phil.

Phil also has quite a few things going in his favor. 1) He knows the course. Phil finished second to Tiger Woods in the 2002 Open at Bethpage. With many players, the jury is still out on how they will fare on such a difficult course. We know that Phil can play it, and play it well. 2) The crowd will be behind him. In 2002, Phil became a sort of adopted son for New Yorkers. You know that, with everything going on in his life, the New York crowd will be ripe with affection for Mickleson. How he feeds off that energy and uses it to his advantage (ala 2002) will be a huge key.

2. So, what did Tiger's win at The Memorial really mean?- Is the best player in the world back so soon? After winning last year on a busted leg and an extra round, Tiger looks for the double defense. First, will he defend his 2008 Open title? Second, will he defend his Bethpage Black Open title? After finishing an unspectacular (for Tiger) sixth at The Masters and eighth at The Players, their were massive questions about whether Woods had recovered from his surgery. Then came the impressive come-from-behind win at The Memorial two weeks ago. Was this Tiger's 2009 entrance or just the best player in the world picking on a lesser field? We will find out this week. Everything is lined up for a Tiger win. A long course. A difficult course. A course he has conquered before.

3. How will The Black play?- A big story line in 2002 was the course itself. It stayed true to it's warning sign and played like one of the toughest courses in the country. If you can't crush the ball, Bethpage may not be the course for you. And guess what? It may be harder this year. The PGA has lengthened the course since we last saw in and added gradulated roughs. This means that players who find themselves in the tall grass will have to really think about their shot. Gone are the days when you can assume what club your hitting. Players may have to be standing over their ball before they can get a good a good feel for the shot. This will make in-the-rough strategy fascinating.

4. Can Angel Cabrera go 2 for 2 in major's?- He won the Masters after outlasting Kenny Perry and Chad Campall in a playoff. He tees off with Woods in round one. He's also had quite a rest. Cabera hasn't played in a tournament since he finished tied for 14th at The Players. How will this affect him? Will he be rested and ready or rusty and wilty? One thing is for sure, however. Cabrera's game is well-suited for Bethpage. He can crush the ball. Something players will need to do this weekend. Look for Cabrera to be in the top 10.

5. Amateur city- This Open, despite the daunting links, will see the most amateur players in more then a decade. This could mean nothing. It could also mean that the future of the PGA Tour will show itself at Bethpage. Would it not be a great story if one of these young guns shows up and has a big week? That could trump any of the prior story lines.

THE PICK: Tiger Woods. I have tried all week to find a scenario in which Tiger does not win. Frankly, I can't find it. Woods is coming off a victory that could spark a massive hot streak. He's healthy again and knows the course extremely well. Their are also only a handful of players that can win this tournament because of its length and difficulty. Tiger is on that short list. Plus, when is picking the best player to win the toughest tournament a bad idea?

Jordan Lauterbach