My oh my is this coming at an ironic time. The same day Nick Malone and I are debating whether or not Al Jefferson is a top 5 big man in the NBA, he is the root of a trade rumor that has some serious juice and some serious implications. This according to the Boston Globe:
"An NBA executive told the Boston Globe today that the Minnesota Timberwolves are working a deal with the Phoenix Suns that would send former Celtics forward Al Jefferson and their sixth pick in next week's NBA draft for All-Star Amare Stoudemire."
For the record I was on the side that said Al Jefferson was not in the top 5 and was somewhere around 7 to 9. Regardless, this is a trade that would seemingly give the Timberwolves not only Stoudemire but the Suns' 14th pick allowing Minny to stay in the lottery.
Look at the averages for these players over the past two seasons and how they are strikingly similar:
Stoudemire: 23.3 pts, 8.6 reb, 1.6 blk, 56% FG, 82% FT
Jefferson: 22 pts, 11 reb, 1.6 blk, 49.8% FG, 73% FT
As you can see, I wasn't lying...Jefferson is a better rebounder while Stoudemire holds a clear advantage in field goal percentage because of how Amare's game is predicated on dunks. It also helps when your big men can shoot from the line (Yao) and it can really hurt you when they cannot (Dwight Howard).
Looking at this trade from how both big men will help their teams, Al Jefferson is a guy who is more determined to play defense for the Suns, something Coach Alvin Gentry wants Phoenix to get back to. He will not be able to bring the low-post defenders out to the elbow like Stoudemire could because he developed a solid 15 foot jumper. Stoudemire in Minnesota is interesting. Kevin Love and Amare could develop a solid front court but how will Amare respond to a city and team that won't be smelling success for at least the next couple of years.
Aside from any random players with expiring contracts who might get thrown in the mix, let's look at this from a draft standpoint. Assuming the teams swap picks (PHX acquires the 6th pick, MIN acquires the 14th) both teams are in positions where they can draft based on need. It's a lock what Phoenix will try and do. Moving up eight spots guarantees them of getting Johnny Flynn, Brandon Jennings, or even Stephen Curry. Point guard is a necessity because it is inevitable Nash's days are numbered in the desert.
Minnesota will draft best player available at 14. They need help at numerous positions most notably small forward or point guard. There is a small chance Demar DeRozan is there at 14 but a guy like Earl Clark will be there and his versatility would be we welcomed by Minnesota. Austin Daye could get a look at small forward as well. At point guard, Ty Lawson and Jeff Teague make a lot of sense. Teague might be a better fit because the Wolves do not have the personnel that like to get up and down the floor quickly.
So who wins in this trade if it goes down? Both players are young as Jefferson will turn 25 next season while Stoudemire will be 27. Also, both have dealt with serious injuries. Stoudemire played 53 games or less in 2003, 2005, and 2008. Al Jefferson played just 50 games last season after suffering a major knee injury. I am giving the slight edge to Phoenix in this one because they acquire a top ten pick, will be able to draft a top prospect, and I think Jefferson is a better fit in Phoenix than Amare is in Minnesota.
Nonetheless, it is very rare we see a superstar traded for a superstar. While Jefferson has never been an All-Star (part of that is because he played in Minnesota) his rising statistics are too good to be ignored. We'll see where this one goes...
-Matt Soldano
Al Jefferson does not play defense at a high level, I'm sorry to say. He should, but he doesn't. He's a very good half-court post player and rebounder.
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