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Friday, February 20, 2009

Who Can Unseat L.A.?

Before anyone gets confused the title is referring to the Lakers.  Now that is taken care of, the Western Conference is very competitive right now.  The only problem is, there is a 7 game difference between #1 and #2.  It is almost inevitable the Lakers will finish atop the conference at season's end but let's examine the rest of the pack and their chances of unseating the Lakers in the playoffs. 

Phoenix Suns: Under new head coach Alvin Gentry, the Suns got back to their uptempo style of play and proceeded to score 140 and 142 points in their first two games.  But with Amare Stoudemire possibly out for the rest of the season, you have to wonder who can step up and compensate for the points.  Shaq will be playing more but does that hurt them in the long-term? Will Nash be able to get out of his shooting funk?  Out of all the teams, Phoenix is least likely to pull off an upset.

Utah Jazz:  This is a team that is scary and I do not expect them to be in the 8th seed come April.  If they can get a healthy Carlos Boozer combined with a front court rotation of Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap in addition to the great play of point guard Deron Williams, Utah in my mind becomes one of the West's Best.  The success of Utah all lies in Boozer's health.

Dallas Mavericks:  Dallas has surprised me this year but at the same time, when have the Mavs put together a solid playoff performance.  Not since the crushing loss in the '06 Finals.  Jason Terry who was a leading 6th Man of the Year candidate is currently sitting on the side with a hand injury which has left Dirk and Josh Howard playing more of a role offensively.  To me, Dallas is still a soft team that would honestly need a miracle to pull off an upset.  

New Orleans Hornets: I would have been much less confident in Nawlens if the Tyson Chandler trade went through.  Despite his injury problems, Chandler gives them front court depth, toughness, and defense.  Paul and West will perform nightly but inconsistent outside shooting and health concerns leave a big question mark for this team.

Houston Rockets: Coming into the season the main thought for the Rockets was this, "if the big three can stay healthy, this team can contend."  Well Tracy McGrady is out for the year with a bum knee and the Ron Artest experiment isn't working out as well as I thought they would. The Rockets have okay depth but I am not sure if they have the offense to win a 7 game series against L.A.

Portland Trail Blazers: Portland definitely is a unique team with their athleticism and age. Rumors swirled about trying to get Gerald Wallace, Richard Jefferson, and Caron Butler but none of them happened.  Brandon Roy can lead any team in the NBA and he has a pretty good supporting cast.  How healthy will Oden be?  

Denver Nuggets: Chauncey Billups has been the difference-maker for this team providing leadership, clutch offense, and defense.  Iverson/Melo never worked out and Melo has certainly been benefited knowing that this is his team now.  That is why, as good as Billups has been, Melo will be the key to any sort of run in the playoffs.  The difference has improved this year and Nene has enjoyed a productive season as well.  

San Antonio Spurs: They are old but they have experience and talent.  Parker, Manu, and Duncan have been there before and are probably going to look for revenge against the Lakers after they were outed by them in the playoffs last year.  Can Ginobli stay healthy?  The Spurs bench is also going to have to continue to play at a high level.  

In conclusion, here is the order in which teams have the best chance to beat the Lakers:
1. San Antonio
2. Utah
3. Denver
4. Portland
5. New Orleans
6. Dallas
7. Houston
8. Phoenix

-Matt Soldano


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